- President travels to Ohio, Indiana and Missouri for final push
- Facebook and Fox pull racist Trump ad – full story
This is a fear election. Fear around immigration and security versus fear about health care coverage, according to analysis by Signify, an ethical data science company. And of the two, health care seems to be the winning issue despite Donald Trump’s dire warnings of a caravan heading towards the US-Mexico border.
Signify pulled the most shared online articles about certain midterm candidates, used machine learning to extract topics and manually categorised the most shared coverage as pro or anti each candidate.
Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is out with his final overview of his predictions for the House:
We’re out with our final major big-picture overview of the House! We’ll keep updating the numbers through mid-morning tomorrow if any late polls come out, but I highly doubt that anything will change much. https://t.co/2ZfuoSzRyf
Republican hopes to keep the House are fairly slim. Democrats have been dealt a good hand and have done a great job of playing it, maximizing their number of opportunities to make seat gains. There’s still a chance — about a 15 percent chance — that their voters won’t turn out in the numbers they need, and they’ll fall a few seats short. But it would require polling and a lot of other data to be fairly wrong, and it would defy a lot of historical precedent as to what happens in midterm elections under unpopular presidents.