“Misses were typically driven by year-end kitchen sinking rather than any material deterioration in asset quality where forward guidance remains benign on the assumption that a recession is to be avoided,” research analysts at Nomura said in a note published Wednesday.
They see asset quality, liquidity and capital levels “far above previous crises, even as share prices test the lows”.
Patrick Armstrong, CIO at Plurimi Investment Managers argued capitalization was not like in 2008, adding that amid the negative market sentiment we were currently witnessing, markets were punishing all the potential “weak links” in the financial system. Those included banks with weaker capitalization, but also emerging markets, China and exporters.
“I just think it’s gone a bit overboard right now with respect to Deutsche Bank and European banks in general,” he said. “The earnings environment isn’t good but the capitalization of Deutsche Bank I think is an overreaction.”
Nomura points out that Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank were hit by concerns over capital adequacy as they booked goodwill impairments, and restructuring and litigation charges.
Both stocks now trade well below crisis levels at prices not seen since the early 1990s, it points out
“There definitely is almost a crisis state right now, he added, and the crisis isn’t there,” Armstrong said. “Deutsche Bank isn’t about to go bankrupt. It’s got a lot of issues facing it.”
Europe banking meltdown: Why it’s gone ‘overboard’ – CNBC